ScottyFLL@gmail.com
09-19-2006, 03:26 PM
This data keeps going around but is not accurate. (I have a copy of
the graph if anyone wants to see it.)
The below data are NOT correct:
===========================================
Averaging the results from the five surveys from 1977 to 1989 yielded
these numbers:
* 81% are gone (19% remain) after 1 month;
* 90% are gone (10% remain) after 3 months,
* 93% are gone (7% remain) after 6 months,
* and 95% are gone (5% remain) at the end of one year. "
=============================================
These data are derived from a graph that had been intended for AA
internal use. I have a copy of the graph if anyone wants to see it.
Someone unknowledgeable about statistics misrepresented what the graph
intends to indicate, and now the data from the graph are making the
rounds.
AA conducted triennial surveys. I am in touch with a man who has some
knowledge of the data-gathering process here (not very good for
statistics, I have to say).
The graph is titled "% of those coming to AA within the first year that
have remained the indicated number of months"
The graph represents DISTRIBUTION, not retention.
Of **PEOPLE WITH UNDER ONE YEAR** at an average meeting,
19% have been coming for one month
13% for two months
10% for three months
9% for four months
8% for five months
7% for six months
7% for seven months
6% for eight months
6% for nine months
6% for ten months
6% for eleven months
5% for twelve months
(The 102% is from rounding -- the graph was composed from data based on
FIVE triennial surveys -- rounding would have occurred in each of the
five triennial surveys.)
So, of people who have been "coming to AA in the first year", 19%
reported they had been coming for a month, and 5% for twelve months.
It is widely known that people tend to go to more meetings early in
recovery than they do later on. It is also known that people are more
likely to "go out" within the first 90 days -- that does seem to be the
biggest drop-off point.
This is NOT to say that a retention rate of 5% isn't correct -- what
I'm just saying is that the data presented here represent DISTRIBUTION,
and retention rates cannot be derived from them (though some are trying
-- I've seen an unbelievable "leap" with some "analysts" who totally
ELIMINATE those first three months and claim a retention minus those
people!)
the graph if anyone wants to see it.)
The below data are NOT correct:
===========================================
Averaging the results from the five surveys from 1977 to 1989 yielded
these numbers:
* 81% are gone (19% remain) after 1 month;
* 90% are gone (10% remain) after 3 months,
* 93% are gone (7% remain) after 6 months,
* and 95% are gone (5% remain) at the end of one year. "
=============================================
These data are derived from a graph that had been intended for AA
internal use. I have a copy of the graph if anyone wants to see it.
Someone unknowledgeable about statistics misrepresented what the graph
intends to indicate, and now the data from the graph are making the
rounds.
AA conducted triennial surveys. I am in touch with a man who has some
knowledge of the data-gathering process here (not very good for
statistics, I have to say).
The graph is titled "% of those coming to AA within the first year that
have remained the indicated number of months"
The graph represents DISTRIBUTION, not retention.
Of **PEOPLE WITH UNDER ONE YEAR** at an average meeting,
19% have been coming for one month
13% for two months
10% for three months
9% for four months
8% for five months
7% for six months
7% for seven months
6% for eight months
6% for nine months
6% for ten months
6% for eleven months
5% for twelve months
(The 102% is from rounding -- the graph was composed from data based on
FIVE triennial surveys -- rounding would have occurred in each of the
five triennial surveys.)
So, of people who have been "coming to AA in the first year", 19%
reported they had been coming for a month, and 5% for twelve months.
It is widely known that people tend to go to more meetings early in
recovery than they do later on. It is also known that people are more
likely to "go out" within the first 90 days -- that does seem to be the
biggest drop-off point.
This is NOT to say that a retention rate of 5% isn't correct -- what
I'm just saying is that the data presented here represent DISTRIBUTION,
and retention rates cannot be derived from them (though some are trying
-- I've seen an unbelievable "leap" with some "analysts" who totally
ELIMINATE those first three months and claim a retention minus those
people!)